FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.73 – 106.42

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±12.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 69.38Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 40.82Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 37.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±12.2

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 46.13Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 7.88Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 52.41Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 11458, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 11458, 5509

Auto

33.2 21%

Teleop

88.9 57%

Endgame

33.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1596, 6073, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 6073, 5229

Auto

16.2 16%

Teleop

64.6 62%

Endgame

23.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.7pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.3
Score range: 89–165
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 93.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.4Season APEX249.9

33.2Auto16.2

88.9Teleop64.6

33.6Endgame23.7

128Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	57	55
endgame	44	48
foul	0	5
total	127	124

Result

Final score

127 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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