FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.19 – 125.77

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.2 ±13.3

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 14.48Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 13.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 11.49Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±12.4

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 35.53Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 18.77Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 71.47Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11527, 9736, 9685

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11527, 9736, 9685

Auto

16.8 51%

Teleop

11.5 35%

Endgame

4.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10547, 6533, 8873

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10547, 6533, 8873

Auto

30.1 26%

Teleop

60.9 52%

Endgame

26.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.2pts

Blue projected score125.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.6
Score range: 22–143
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 96.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.2Season APEX268.7

16.8Auto30.1

11.5Teleop60.9

4.5Endgame26.7

165Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	7	24
endgame	10	4
foul	0	0
total	35	59

Result

Final score

35 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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