FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.49 – 39.57

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.5 ±12.4

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 17.55Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 57.99Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 43.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.5 ±13.3

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 0.68Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 14.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 24.24Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10587, 3770, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10587, 3770, 3425

Auto

14.3 12%

Teleop

71.4 58%

Endgame

37.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9238, 7784, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9238, 7784, 9648

Auto

13.2 32%

Teleop

23.9 58%

Endgame

4.4 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score39.6pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.9
Score range: 22–137
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.5Season APEX143.5

14.3Auto13.2

71.4Teleop23.9

37.6Endgame4.4

4Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	3
teleop	66	12
endgame	20	14
foul	0	0
total	113	29

Result

Final score

113 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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