FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.92 – 105.8

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.7 ±12.7

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX -4.79Rank 39Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 17.55Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -4.84Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358 ±11.1

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 13.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 21.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 70.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5504, 5424, 5603

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5504, 5424, 5603

Auto

14.0 100%

Teleop

-11.8 0%

Endgame

1.1 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9661, 5538, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9661, 5538, 5216

Auto

1.7 2%

Teleop

79.7 77%

Endgame

22.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.9pts

Blue projected score105.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.9
Score range: -9–123
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 97.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.7Season APEX358

14Auto1.7

-11.8Teleop79.7

1.1Endgame22.2

77Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	42
teleop	15	93
endgame	7	26
foul	0	0
total	46	161

Result

Final score

46 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 46.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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