FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.93 – 84.44

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±12.4

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -9.08Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 54.58Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.43Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.9 ±11.7

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 45.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 32.46Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 6.45Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9731, 3770, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9731, 3770, 5525

Auto

34.0 60%

Teleop

17.5 31%

Endgame

5.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8873, 1596, 11527

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 1596, 11527

Auto

20.6 27%

Teleop

46.8 61%

Endgame

9.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.9pts

Blue projected score84.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.5
Score range: 37–101
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX298.9

34Auto20.6

17.5Teleop46.8

5.3Endgame9.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	12	93
endgame	21	42
foul	0	0
total	54	170

Result

Final score

54 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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