FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.5 – 21.15

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±12.2

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 9.82Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 15.91Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 23.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.3 ±13.9

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 10.03Rank 39Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -1.38Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 12.5Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5561, 3425, 3357

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 3425, 3357

Auto

6.4 13%

Teleop

25.5 52%

Endgame

16.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5504, 9736, 7784

/ 100 compat

Projected

21.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5504, 9736, 7784

Auto

17.8 82%

Teleop

2.0 9%

Endgame

1.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.5pts

Blue projected score21.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 5–66
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 91.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.4Season APEX126.3

6.4Auto17.8

25.5Teleop2

16.7Endgame1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	84	21
endgame	55	6
foul	0	5
total	152	46

Result

Final score

152 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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