FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.58 – 101.29

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±12.8

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 10.74Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 0.36Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 58.48Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.1 ±10.5

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 10.81Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 57.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 33.45Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6533, 9238, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6533, 9238, 8517

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

47.9 68%

Endgame

5.3 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9648, 5216, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 5216, 5229

Auto

28.9 29%

Teleop

47.0 48%

Endgame

22.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.6pts

Blue projected score101.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.7
Score range: 55–116
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 84.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.5Season APEX418.1

16.8Auto28.9

47.9Teleop47

5.3Endgame22.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	4
teleop	74	117
endgame	20	58
foul	0	0
total	124	179

Result

Final score

124 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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