FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

46.52 – 26.4

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±12.2

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 6.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 14.79Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 24.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.9 ±11.7

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 11.69Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -10.23Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 24.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 11458, 9661

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3357, 11458, 9661

Auto

7.9 18%

Teleop

39.7 91%

Endgame

-4.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5712, 9731, 1596

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 9731, 1596

Auto

8.8 38%

Teleop

25.5 100%

Endgame

-11.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score26.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: 11–62
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 83.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX359.9

7.9Auto8.8

39.7Teleop25.5

-4.1Endgame-11.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	34
teleop	70	26
endgame	16	5
foul	5	0
total	101	65

Result

Final score

101 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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