FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.16 – 30.66

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±12.7

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 8.33Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 11.71Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 17.12Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 27.86Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -5.53Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 8.33Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5561, 10547, 9685

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 10547, 9685

Auto

9.9 32%

Teleop

19.9 65%

Endgame

1.0 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5509, 9736, 5603

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 9736, 5603

Auto

13.0 43%

Teleop

16.0 53%

Endgame

1.4 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.2pts

Blue projected score30.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.5
Score range: 16–52
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 85.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.6Season APEX151

9.9Auto13

19.9Teleop16

1Endgame1.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	17	28
endgame	31	14
foul	0	0
total	76	62

Result

Final score

76 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 35.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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