FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.2 – 61.27

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11.6

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 57.31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 45.45Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 32.44Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±12.7

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.51Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 29.24Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 33.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5229, 6033, 5424

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 6033, 5424

Auto

35.1 27%

Teleop

59.2 46%

Endgame

35.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10629, 5603, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10629, 5603, 5561

Auto

13.4 22%

Teleop

28.8 48%

Endgame

17.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score61.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.9
Score range: 39–157
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 121.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.8Season APEX179.9

35.1Auto13.4

59.2Teleop28.8

35.4Endgame17.9

56Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	9
teleop	38	21
endgame	24	6
foul	15	0
total	110	36

Result

Final score

110 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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