FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.11 – 208.08

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±9.9

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 84Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.06Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 88.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 83Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 27.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 97.74Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 5424, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5424, 5216

Auto

56.1 27%

Teleop

117.9 58%

Endgame

30.7 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

46.1 22%

Teleop

110.1 54%

Endgame

49.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.1pts

Blue projected score208.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2
Score range: 184–230
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445Season APEX455.1

56.1Auto46.1

117.9Teleop110.1

30.7Endgame49.2

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	56
teleop	78	94
endgame	10	48
foul	15	65
total	166	263

Result

Final score

166 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Match videos

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