FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.83 – 208.46

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±9.9

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 84.25Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.3Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 88.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 83.14Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 27.47Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 97.85Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 5424, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5424, 5216

Auto

53.7 26%

Teleop

118.7 58%

Endgame

32.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

46.2 22%

Teleop

112.1 55%

Endgame

47.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.8pts

Blue projected score208.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.6
Score range: 185–230
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445Season APEX455.1

53.7Auto46.2

118.7Teleop112.1

32.8Endgame47.2

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	46
teleop	112	94
endgame	16	65
foul	0	0
total	201	205

Result

Final score

201 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Match videos

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