FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.78 – 149.15

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

485 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.8 ±9.9

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -6.04Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 191.4Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 168.42Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±12.7

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 28.59Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 55.71Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 64.85Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8374, 2137, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8374, 2137, 7166

Auto

83.1 24%

Teleop

178.5 51%

Endgame

88.7 25%

Strengths

· 2137 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4776, 5926, 7226

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 5926, 7226

Auto

21.8 15%

Teleop

89.1 60%

Endgame

36.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score353.8pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.6
Score range: 122–381
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.8Season APEX181.7

83.1Auto21.8

178.5Teleop89.1

88.7Endgame36.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	30
teleop	243	68
endgame	126	44
foul	15	0
total	485	142

Result

Final score

485 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 69.2 pts

Match videos

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