FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.29 – 244.64

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.8 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 181.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 21.93Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 141.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 92.22Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 40.9Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 111.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 9251, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 9251, 8608

Auto

57.0 17%

Teleop

206.3 60%

Endgame

79.2 23%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 6085, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6085, 7056

Auto

47.9 20%

Teleop

141.8 58%

Endgame

55.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score345.3pts

Blue projected score244.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.7
Score range: 218–372
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.8Season APEX462.9

57Auto47.9

206.3Teleop141.8

79.2Endgame55.6

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	27
teleop	261	110
endgame	61	82
foul	0	5
total	391	224

Result

Final score

391 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Match videos

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