FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.6 – 147.27

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 192.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 578.8 ±9.9

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 13.65Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 210.77Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 188.18Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±10.5

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 37.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 19.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 90.74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8374, 2137, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8374, 2137, 7166

Auto

92.9 23%

Teleop

211.5 52%

Endgame

103.9 25%

Strengths

· 2137 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8424, 7491, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8424, 7491, 3707

Auto

25.9 18%

Teleop

87.8 59%

Endgame

34.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score412.6pts

Blue projected score147.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 265.3
Score range: 120–440
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

578.8Season APEX425.5

92.9Auto25.9

211.5Teleop87.8

103.9Endgame34.3

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	33
teleop	3	60
endgame	11	31
foul	0	5
total	45	129

Result

Final score

45 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 192.9 pts

Match videos

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