FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.73 – 137.4

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±11.6

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 53.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 33.78Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 33.68Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±12.7

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 51.67Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 61.35Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 24.38Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5674, 11503, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 11503, 3655

Auto

26.2 23%

Teleop

51.9 46%

Endgame

34.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5926, 7226, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 7226, 4776

Auto

21.1 16%

Teleop

80.8 60%

Endgame

33.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.7pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 94–164
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.2Season APEX181.7

26.2Auto21.1

51.9Teleop80.8

34.8Endgame33.4

68Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	21
teleop	47	118
endgame	31	46
foul	5	0
total	106	185

Result

Final score

106 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Match videos

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