FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.88 – 144.48

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±11.7

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 59.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 65.18Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 47.47Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±11.2

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 24.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 78.14Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 41.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 6078, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 6078, 9255

Auto

33.1 20%

Teleop

94.9 57%

Endgame

39.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10606, 4327, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 4327, 9312

Auto

42.6 30%

Teleop

64.3 46%

Endgame

34.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.9pts

Blue projected score144.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.4
Score range: 117–199
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 152.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.6Season APEX290

33.1Auto42.6

94.9Teleop64.3

39.8Endgame34.2

20Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	51	30
endgame	7	24
foul	10	0
total	99	93

Result

Final score

99 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 62.2 pts

Match videos

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