FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.39 – 133.55

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 86.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 36.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 110.4Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.7 ±12.7

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 49.53Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 60.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 23.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 6085, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6085, 7056

Auto

44.7 19%

Teleop

135.2 58%

Endgame

54.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5926, 7226, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 7226, 4776

Auto

21.3 16%

Teleop

74.7 57%

Endgame

34.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.4pts

Blue projected score133.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.8
Score range: 107–260
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX181.7

44.7Auto21.3

135.2Teleop74.7

54.3Endgame34.9

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	21
teleop	156	102
endgame	53	26
foul	0	0
total	266	149

Result

Final score

266 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Match videos

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