FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.9 – 126.94

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.8 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 181.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 19.74Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 142.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±11.6

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 56.08Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 35.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 35.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 9251, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 9251, 8608

Auto

54.7 16%

Teleop

203.0 60%

Endgame

82.8 24%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5674, 11503, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 11503, 3655

Auto

27.2 23%

Teleop

53.7 46%

Endgame

36.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score343.9pts

Blue projected score126.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217
Score range: 100–371
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.8Season APEX208.2

54.7Auto27.2

203Teleop53.7

82.8Endgame36

22Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	22
teleop	221	43
endgame	66	28
foul	0	0
total	353	93

Result

Final score

353 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Match videos

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