FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.6 – 151.83

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±10.5

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 17.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 89.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 37.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±11.2

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 26.75Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 80.77Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 44.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7491, 3707, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7491, 3707, 8424

Auto

23.1 16%

Teleop

94.7 65%

Endgame

28.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10606, 4327, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 4327, 9312

Auto

39.1 26%

Teleop

67.4 46%

Endgame

41.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.6pts

Blue projected score151.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 118–179
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 150.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.5Season APEX290

23.1Auto39.1

94.7Teleop67.4

28Endgame41.3

23Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	58
teleop	58	51
endgame	54	6
foul	0	0
total	151	115

Result

Final score

151 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 21.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.