FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

244.01 – 372.16

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

275 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 91.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 40.46Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 112.01Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.8 ±9.9

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -0.27Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 198.12Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 174.31Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 6085, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

244 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6085, 7056

Auto

45.0 18%

Teleop

134.4 55%

Endgame

64.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8374, 2137, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8374, 2137, 7166

Auto

85.4 23%

Teleop

188.3 51%

Endgame

93.3 25%

Strengths

· 2137 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244pts

Blue projected score372.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.2
Score range: 216–400
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX578.8

45Auto85.4

134.4Teleop188.3

64.3Endgame93.3

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	103
teleop	129	188
endgame	79	60
foul	5	0
total	275	351

Result

Final score

275 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Match videos

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