FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.45 – 353.27

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±10.5

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 36.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 20.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 90.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.8 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 183.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 24.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 145.1Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8424, 7491, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8424, 7491, 3707

Auto

27.5 19%

Teleop

84.6 58%

Endgame

34.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 9251, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 9251, 8608

Auto

59.1 17%

Teleop

216.4 62%

Endgame

75.5 22%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.5pts

Blue projected score353.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -206.8
Score range: 118–381
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.5Season APEX607.8

27.5Auto59.1

84.6Teleop216.4

34.2Endgame75.5

37Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	72
teleop	64	115
endgame	44	81
foul	0	0
total	140	268

Result

Final score

140 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Match videos

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