FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.92 – 162.25

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 89.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 39.38Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 110.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±11.7

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 56.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 62.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 43.31Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 6085, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6085, 7056

Auto

44.2 18%

Teleop

135.9 57%

Endgame

59.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8179, 6078, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 6078, 9255

Auto

33.4 21%

Teleop

89.4 57%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239.9pts

Blue projected score162.3pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.7
Score range: 134–268
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX267.6

44.2Auto33.4

135.9Teleop89.4

59.6Endgame34.3

7Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	36
teleop	119	51
endgame	95	54
foul	0	0
total	265	141

Result

Final score

265 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Match videos

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