FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.97 – 232.69

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±11.1

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 19.99Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 141.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 33.65Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.1 ±11.7

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 16.14Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 207.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 9.4Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10577, 8608, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10577, 8608, 3655

Auto

35.0 18%

Teleop

115.8 60%

Endgame

40.8 21%

Strengths

· 8608 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11490, 2137, 8374

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11490, 2137, 8374

Auto

73.6 31%

Teleop

103.0 44%

Endgame

58.4 25%

Strengths

· 2137 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195pts

Blue projected score232.7pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.7
Score range: 168–260
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410Season APEX343.1

35Auto73.6

115.8Teleop103

40.8Endgame58.4

44Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	55
teleop	91	139
endgame	88	65
foul	0	0
total	215	259

Result

Final score

215 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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