FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.31 – 70.97

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.2 ±13.9

7818Williamston High School Vespidae

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 12.83Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.21Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 14.69Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±13.3

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 8.66Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 15.55Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 46.76Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7818, 9203, 11444

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7818, 9203, 11444

Auto

9.2 30%

Teleop

13.4 44%

Endgame

7.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9753, 1504, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9753, 1504, 5926

Auto

24.4 34%

Teleop

22.5 31%

Endgame

25.8 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.3pts

Blue projected score71pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.7
Score range: -1–98
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.2Season APEX156.4

9.2Auto24.4

13.4Teleop22.5

7.8Endgame25.8

55Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	27
teleop	15	71
endgame	11	12
foul	0	0
total	42	110

Result

Final score

42 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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