FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.65 – 152.45

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±12.8

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 15.16Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 13.52Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 107.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383 ±11.2

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 17.53Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 86.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 48.62Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8362, 9237, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8362, 9237, 7056

Auto

26.5 21%

Teleop

56.4 45%

Endgame

43.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5225, 910, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5225, 910, 9255

Auto

21.5 14%

Teleop

95.4 62%

Endgame

35.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.7pts

Blue projected score152.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.8
Score range: 110–179
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.4Season APEX383

26.5Auto21.5

56.4Teleop95.4

43.3Endgame35.8

21Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	32
teleop	68	75
endgame	58	40
foul	0	0
total	169	147

Result

Final score

169 – 147

Prediction missed · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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