FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.5 – 32.46

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

89 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 54 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±11.6

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 25.28Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 51.28Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 64.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.4 ±13.3

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 15.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 6.38Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10577, 5926, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10577, 5926, 8179

Auto

35.0 25%

Teleop

75.1 53%

Endgame

31.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7491, 1504, 10629

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7491, 1504, 10629

Auto

13.3 39%

Teleop

13.1 38%

Endgame

7.9 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.5pts

Blue projected score32.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109
Score range: 5–169
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX159.4

35Auto13.3

75.1Teleop13.1

31Endgame7.9

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	52	33
endgame	13	33
foul	0	0
total	89	88

Result

Final score

89 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 54 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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