FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.46 – 67.6

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 121.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±11.7

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX -Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 37.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.5 ±11.7

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 24.57Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX -Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX -Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3707, 10577, 10606

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3707, 10577, 10606

Auto

18.9 24%

Teleop

41.8 52%

Endgame

19.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6078, 5926, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6078, 5926, 8608

Auto

18.9 28%

Teleop

34.1 50%

Endgame

14.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.5pts

Blue projected score67.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.9
Score range: 45–103
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.7Season APEX450.5

6Auto6

20.3Teleop12.6

11.1Endgame6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	35
teleop	40	203
endgame	3	64
foul	5	0
total	89	302

Result

Final score

89 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 121.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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