FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.66 – 126.15

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.3 ±11

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 24.85Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 43.25Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 45.56Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±12.4

7289Blue Eagles

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 25.47Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7818Williamston High School Vespidae

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 12.43Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 88.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10577, 9255, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10577, 9255, 9312

Auto

33.6 29%

Teleop

56.9 50%

Endgame

24.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7289, 7818, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7289, 7818, 910

Auto

32.4 25%

Teleop

64.1 50%

Endgame

30.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score126.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.5
Score range: 87–153
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 149.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.3Season APEX306.5

33.6Auto32.4

56.9Teleop64.1

24Endgame30.9

6Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	21
teleop	65	43
endgame	15	42
foul	0	0
total	126	106

Result

Final score

126 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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