FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.42 – 266.1

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±13.3

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 59.92Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 7.56Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 6.94Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.4 ±9.9

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 184.57Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 6.44Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 75.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5674, 10629, 9753

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 10629, 9753

Auto

12.2 17%

Teleop

30.0 43%

Endgame

28.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7166, 8374, 4327

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7166, 8374, 4327

Auto

41.1 15%

Teleop

146.0 55%

Endgame

78.8 30%

Strengths

· 7166 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score266.1pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.7
Score range: 48–292
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 146.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134Season APEX436.4

12.2Auto41.1

30Teleop146

28.1Endgame78.8

34Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	23	169
endgame	31	90
foul	0	0
total	70	309

Result

Final score

70 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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