FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.25 – 177.55

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.6 ±10.5

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 175.19Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 46.25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 48.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.9 ±10.4

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 103.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 33.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 39.99Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 9312, 5926

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 9312, 5926

Auto

67.9 25%

Teleop

143.3 53%

Endgame

58.8 22%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 11503, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 11503, 6085

Auto

31.0 18%

Teleop

95.3 54%

Endgame

50.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score270.3pts

Blue projected score177.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 152–296
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.6Season APEX328.9

67.9Auto31

143.3Teleop95.3

58.8Endgame50.6

10Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	63
teleop	140	83
endgame	88	36
foul	0	0
total	285	182

Result

Final score

285 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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