FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.2 – 93.63

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 15.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.7 ±11.7

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 19.34Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -21.67Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 96.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.7 ±11

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 37.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 41.12Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.4Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9237, 8374, 910

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 8374, 910

Auto

18.8 19%

Teleop

52.4 52%

Endgame

30.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8424, 9312, 9251

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8424, 9312, 9251

Auto

35.0 39%

Teleop

38.1 42%

Endgame

17.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.2pts

Blue projected score93.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 66–122
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.7Season APEX281.7

18.8Auto35

52.4Teleop38.1

30.1Endgame17.1

30Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	31	48
endgame	26	32
foul	0	5
total	75	106

Result

Final score

75 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 15.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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