FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.69 – 101.87

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.8 ±10.5

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 23.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 83.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 27.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.2 ±13.9

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 17.96Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 20.95Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7226Error 404

Season APEX 71.8Event APEX 62.96Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4776, 910, 8424

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4776, 910, 8424

Auto

25.9 20%

Teleop

75.3 57%

Endgame

31.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11490, 11444, 7226

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11490, 11444, 7226

Auto

24.1 23%

Teleop

66.9 65%

Endgame

12.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.7pts

Blue projected score101.9pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.8
Score range: 76–160
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.8Season APEX158.2

25.9Auto24.1

75.3Teleop66.9

31.5Endgame12.7

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	7
teleop	115	33
endgame	43	23
foul	0	0
total	187	63

Result

Final score

187 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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