FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.08 – 170.58

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.4 ±11.6

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 69.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 34.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 59.36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±10.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 73.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 83.81Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 13.34Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 3655, 5674

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 3655, 5674

Auto

33.8 21%

Teleop

98.2 61%

Endgame

29.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4327, 3707, 5225

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 3707, 5225

Auto

24.1 14%

Teleop

107.0 62%

Endgame

40.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score170.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.5
Score range: 137–197
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.4Season APEX431.6

33.8Auto24.1

98.2Teleop107

29.9Endgame40.6

62Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	34
teleop	75	125
endgame	43	35
foul	15	5
total	165	199

Result

Final score

165 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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