FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.45 – 129.14

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±12.8

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 12.49Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 27.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 18.27Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.1 ±11

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 49.17Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 41.55Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 38.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5704, 8424, 11490

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 8424, 11490

Auto

13.8 23%

Teleop

29.3 49%

Endgame

16.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5926, 9255, 6085

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 9255, 6085

Auto

33.5 26%

Teleop

60.5 48%

Endgame

33.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.5pts

Blue projected score129.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.7
Score range: 32–155
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.2Season APEX249.1

13.8Auto33.5

29.3Teleop60.5

16.2Endgame33.1

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	28
teleop	20	85
endgame	18	36
foul	0	0
total	64	149

Result

Final score

64 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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