FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.78 – 169.31

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.9 ±12.8

9753Team Success

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 9.61Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 36.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7818Williamston High School Vespidae

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 16.38Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±11.7

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 85.42Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 20.61Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 63.28Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9753, 11503, 7818

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9753, 11503, 7818

Auto

19.6 29%

Teleop

21.1 32%

Endgame

26.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 8362, 5674

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 8362, 5674

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

94.3 57%

Endgame

41.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score169.3pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.5
Score range: 37–195
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.9Season APEX351.6

19.6Auto30.6

21.1Teleop94.3

26.1Endgame41.2

22Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	7	95
endgame	12	43
foul	0	0
total	40	160

Result

Final score

40 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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