FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.45 – 68.1

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.1 ±13.3

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 4.09Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 31.88Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 11.48Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±12.8

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 9Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7289Blue Eagles

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 18.36Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 40.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10629, 3655, 1940

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10629, 3655, 1940

Auto

6.9 16%

Teleop

26.8 63%

Endgame

8.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9238, 7289, 9312

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9238, 7289, 9312

Auto

30.2 45%

Teleop

7.1 11%

Endgame

30.2 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.5pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.6
Score range: 21–94
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.1Season APEX203.4

6.9Auto30.2

26.8Teleop7.1

8.9Endgame30.2

104Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	43
teleop	41	53
endgame	17	38
foul	0	0
total	75	134

Result

Final score

75 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 46.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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