FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

158.58 – 188.39

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.1 ±11.2

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 14.04Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 74.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 69.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.6 ±12.4

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -2.45Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 179.06Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 11.78Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10606, 4327, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 4327, 8179

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

69.2 46%

Endgame

43.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9203, 7166, 9237

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 7166, 9237

Auto

35.9 19%

Teleop

111.1 58%

Endgame

43.5 23%

Strengths

· 7166 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.6pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.8
Score range: 133–214
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.1Season APEX377.6

38Auto35.9

69.2Teleop111.1

43.9Endgame43.5

60Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	33
teleop	98	91
endgame	42	82
foul	5	0
total	179	206

Result

Final score

179 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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