FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.09 – 169.14

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132 ±13.9

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 15.38Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 13.35Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 24.36Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±12.2

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 93.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 61.33Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7818Williamston High School Vespidae

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 14.2Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5704, 9238, 1504

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5704, 9238, 1504

Auto

6.7 13%

Teleop

20.7 40%

Endgame

24.7 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 5674, 7818

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 5674, 7818

Auto

20.6 12%

Teleop

87.9 52%

Endgame

61.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score169.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116
Score range: 28–194
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132Season APEX260.3

6.7Auto20.6

20.7Teleop87.9

24.7Endgame61.9

30Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	44
teleop	12	108
endgame	14	38
foul	0	0
total	35	190

Result

Final score

35 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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