FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.57 – 59.62

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±13.9

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 16.15Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 22.69Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -3.27Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±11.6

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 1.14Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 33.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 24.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10606, 11490, 9203

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10606, 11490, 9203

Auto

31.7 100%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

2.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8374, 9312, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8374, 9312, 3655

Auto

23.8 42%

Teleop

21.5 38%

Endgame

11.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24
Score range: 10–86
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134Season APEX182.9

31.7Auto23.8

-5Teleop21.5

2.5Endgame11.9

109Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	31
teleop	8	61
endgame	7	27
foul	0	0
total	44	119

Result

Final score

44 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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