FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.64 – 216.09

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±11.6

5926Da Moose

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 70.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8424Tractor Technicians Next Gen

Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 36.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 29.76Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.3 ±11.7

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 7.98Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 50.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 157.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5926, 8424, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5926, 8424, 3655

Auto

26.7 20%

Teleop

76.9 58%

Endgame

28.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9238, 5674, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9238, 5674, 5712

Auto

38.8 18%

Teleop

104.1 49%

Endgame

70.9 33%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.6pts

Blue projected score216.1pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.5
Score range: 112–241
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 140.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.2Season APEX362.3

26.7Auto38.8

76.9Teleop104.1

28.9Endgame70.9

49Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	63
teleop	40	130
endgame	30	62
foul	0	0
total	104	255

Result

Final score

104 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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