FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.87 – 71.56

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±11.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 62.25Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 12.11Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 18.51Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±12.8

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 30.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 16.26Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 24.48Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4327, 11444, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4327, 11444, 4776

Auto

15.6 17%

Teleop

44.5 48%

Endgame

31.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9312, 5704, 5225

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 5704, 5225

Auto

16.8 24%

Teleop

34.4 49%

Endgame

18.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.9pts

Blue projected score71.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.3
Score range: 46–119
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.1Season APEX195.7

15.6Auto16.8

44.5Teleop34.4

31.9Endgame18.6

62Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	15
teleop	72	35
endgame	37	16
foul	0	0
total	137	66

Result

Final score

137 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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