FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.27 – 27.89

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158 ±12.8

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 3.01Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.09Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 57.17Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±13.9

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 15.4Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -1.09Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 13.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9203, 1940, 11503

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 1940, 11503

Auto

16.7 21%

Teleop

46.3 59%

Endgame

15.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9237, 10629, 11490

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 10629, 11490

Auto

10.3 44%

Teleop

-0.1 0%

Endgame

13.1 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score27.9pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.4
Score range: 3–101
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 140.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158Season APEX141.9

16.7Auto10.3

46.3Teleop-0.1

15.9Endgame13.1

136Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	19
teleop	34	24
endgame	6	17
foul	0	0
total	56	60

Result

Final score

56 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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