FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.69 – 225.01

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.3 ±13.3

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 22.02Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 30.63Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 19.04Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 511.1 ±9.3

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 81.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 57.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 85.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9251, 6078, 10606

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9251, 6078, 10606

Auto

5.4 8%

Teleop

29.5 46%

Endgame

28.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 4327, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 4327, 7056

Auto

29.3 13%

Teleop

135.8 60%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.7pts

Blue projected score225pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -153.3
Score range: 47–250
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.3Season APEX511.1

5.4Auto29.3

29.5Teleop135.8

28.8Endgame60.7

17Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	35
teleop	1	146
endgame	18	69
foul	15	0
total	72	250

Result

Final score

72 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 12.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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