FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.25 – 61.4

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±12.8

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 23.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6591Panther Powered Robotics 6591

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 15.46Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 56.48Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.5 ±12.7

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 9.23Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 26.4Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 25.77Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8362, 6591, 9255

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8362, 6591, 9255

Auto

22.1 24%

Teleop

49.1 52%

Endgame

22.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1940, 10577, 5674

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1940, 10577, 5674

Auto

13.1 22%

Teleop

29.3 50%

Endgame

16.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.3pts

Blue projected score61.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.9
Score range: 35–121
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.7Season APEX172.5

22.1Auto13.1

49.1Teleop29.3

22.4Endgame16.5

67Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	47	60
endgame	23	26
foul	0	0
total	87	115

Result

Final score

87 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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