FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.72 – 84.67

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.9 ±13.3

9203Quake

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 1.37Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 20.61Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 11.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.8 ±9.8

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 48.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6085Green Devil Bots

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -13.51Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 49.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9203, 9238, 3655

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9203, 9238, 3655

Auto

3.5 11%

Teleop

22.2 73%

Endgame

4.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 910, 6085, 8179

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6085, 8179

Auto

41.8 48%

Teleop

31.8 36%

Endgame

13.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.7pts

Blue projected score84.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.9
Score range: 9–110
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 141.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.9Season APEX393.8

3.5Auto41.8

22.2Teleop31.8

4.8Endgame13.9

156Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	44
teleop	25	158
endgame	14	43
foul	0	0
total	57	245

Result

Final score

57 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 91.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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