FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.76 – 61.97

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.8 ±11.7

9312NERD Spark

Season APEX 101.3Event APEX 47.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 12.98Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 76.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±11.2

11503TALONS

Season APEX 88.2Event APEX 10.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5704Weird & Wired

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 25.1Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3707TechnoDogs

Season APEX 240.7Event APEX 26.13Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9312, 11490, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9312, 11490, 7056

Auto

26.3 19%

Teleop

81.6 59%

Endgame

30.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11503, 5704, 3707

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11503, 5704, 3707

Auto

17.5 29%

Teleop

38.7 64%

Endgame

4.1 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score62pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 37–162
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.8Season APEX359.8

26.3Auto17.5

81.6Teleop38.7

30.5Endgame4.1

61Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	22
teleop	83	105
endgame	41	54
foul	0	0
total	166	181

Result

Final score

166 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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