FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.99 – 124.8

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.7 ±13.3

6078RoboRams

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 38.38Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7818Williamston High School Vespidae

Season APEX 25.1Event APEX 63.85Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 58.76Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.9 ±12.2

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 65.55Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9251EliteBots

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 32.01Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11444Cougar Claw Robotics

Season APEX 48.4Event APEX 27.24Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6078, 7818, 10577

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6078, 7818, 10577

Auto

29.7 18%

Teleop

93.8 57%

Endgame

41.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8179, 9251, 11444

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 9251, 11444

Auto

12.4 10%

Teleop

59.4 48%

Endgame

52.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161pts

Blue projected score124.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.2
Score range: 101–185
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.7Season APEX202.9

29.7Auto12.4

93.8Teleop59.4

41.3Endgame52.8

24Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	23
teleop	35	47
endgame	8	23
foul	0	0
total	65	93

Result

Final score

65 – 93

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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