FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.39 – 96.48

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±12.7

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 9.51Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 11.19Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 17.69Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±13.3

3655Tractor Technicians

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 40.64Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 22.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6591Panther Powered Robotics 6591

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 33.21Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5674, 7491, 9237

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 7491, 9237

Auto

4.9 14%

Teleop

-2.4 0%

Endgame

31.5 93%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3655, 10606, 6591

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3655, 10606, 6591

Auto

19.1 20%

Teleop

29.7 32%

Endgame

45.3 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.4pts

Blue projected score96.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.1
Score range: 13–121
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.4Season APEX170.3

4.9Auto19.1

-2.4Teleop29.7

31.5Endgame45.3

47Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	18
teleop	56	16
endgame	29	2
foul	0	20
total	97	56

Result

Final score

97 – 56

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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