FIM District Mason Event presented by Altair

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.02 – 158.41

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.7 ±12.2

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 41.83Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1940Tech Tigers 1940

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 10.3Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -14.11Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.2 ±11.7

1504Desperate Penguins

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 19.02Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 129.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4776S.C.O.T.S. Bots

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 9.99Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 1940, 8374

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9255, 1940, 8374

Auto

6.7 17%

Teleop

32.4 84%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1504, 5712, 4776

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1504, 5712, 4776

Auto

32.4 21%

Teleop

82.4 52%

Endgame

43.0 27%

Strengths

· 5712 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score158.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 14–182
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.7Season APEX341.2

6.7Auto32.4

32.4Teleop82.4

-0.6Endgame43

201Consistency228

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	70
teleop	29	136
endgame	26	43
foul	0	5
total	70	254

Result

Final score

70 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 63.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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